Oil Trades in Thin Liquidity as U.S.–Iran Talks Continue, Hormuz Reopening in Focus 

Key Takeaways:

*U.S.–Iran discussions continue with no clear breakthrough yet

*Proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz under negotiation

*Oil market liquidity remains thin amid uncertainty

*Long-term oil bias stays supported by supply risks

Market Summary:

Crude oil prices traded in a cautious and low-liquidity environment as ongoing discussions between the United States and Iran failed to deliver a clear breakthrough, leaving markets in a wait-and-see mode.

Donald Trump indicated that the U.S. had discussed a proposal from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, contingent on the lifting of U.S. blockades and an end to the conflict. The proposal reportedly includes postponing negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program to a later stage. According to Karoline Leavitt, discussions are ongoing, though no firm agreement has been reached.

Despite the proposal, uncertainty remains high. Trump has reiterated that the blockade would only be lifted once a “complete” deal is finalized, raising doubts over whether the current framework will lead to a near-term resolution. As a result, market participants continue to monitor developments closely for clearer signals.

The lack of concrete progress has led to thin liquidity in the oil market, as investors remain hesitant to take strong positions ahead of key geopolitical outcomes. Price movements have been limited, reflecting the broader uncertainty surrounding supply conditions.

Looking at the broader trend, oil prices remain tilted to the upside, supported by ongoing risks to global supply, particularly if disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz persist. However, near-term direction will remain highly sensitive to headlines, with any confirmed agreement or breakdown in talks likely to trigger sharp moves.

Overall, the oil market is currently driven by geopolitical developments rather than fundamentals, with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remaining the key catalyst for the next major move in prices.

Technical Analysis 

USOil, H4:

Crude oil prices are trading higher after a breakout above the 93.65 resistance level, forming a classic breakout–retest–rebound structure.

However, momentum is starting to soften. The MACD is losing bullish strength and attempting a bearish crossover, while the RSI at 61 has eased from overbought territory, suggesting a potential near-term technical correction.

If bullish momentum fades, prices may retest the 93.65 support level, which now acts as a key near-term floor.

Conversely, if buying pressure resumes, oil could extend gains toward 100.55, with further upside toward 106.20.

Resistance Levels: 100.55， 106.20

Support Levels: 93.65, 86.95